How Individuals Actually Really feel About Elon Musk

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Twitter’s new proprietor, Elon Musk, may not have any credibility as a pollster in FiveThirtyEight’s ranking system, however he’s a pollster nonetheless. Kinda.

Quickly after he took management of Twitter in October, the once-richest individual on this planet applied a brand new administration type that allowed customers to make key choices by way of polls. Ought to former President Donald Trump be allowed to rejoin the platform after supposedly being completely banned final 12 months? A slim majority of customers stated sure, so — “Vox Populi, Vox Dei,” as Musk wrote — he was again. Ought to Musk deliver again Vine, the short-form video app which shut down in 2016? Positive! Possibly! The folks have spoken!

The stakes of the polls escalated rapidly. On Sunday, Musk put his personal job safety on the road, vowing to abide by the outcomes of his personal, unscientific ballot. “Ought to I step down as head of Twitter?” he requested customers. By Monday, he had a solution: By a 15-point margin — 57.5 p.c to 42.5 p.c — respondents stated he ought to resign from his publish atop the social media large. Musk stated on Tuesday he plans to honor the ballot’s outcomes as quickly as he finds “somebody silly sufficient” to succeed him. It’s unclear when that may occur, or how a lot energy he’ll really be relinquishing.

It’s too dangerous for Musk that he didn’t take a extra scientific strategy, although, as a result of in line with a lot of professionally performed polls, Individuals nonetheless have a considerably favorable opinion of him — though they do maintain damaging views of social media firms usually. 

Let’s kick issues off with Musk’s personal query of whether or not he ought to give up. Although a majority of respondents in his personal survey stated “sure,” an in a single day ballot performed by HarrisX in mid-December discovered {that a} whopping 61 p.c of U.S. Twitter customers and 53 p.c of U.S. adults really need Musk to remain on the helm. In the meantime, one other December ballot, this one from Quinnipiac College, discovered that Individuals have been virtually evenly cut up on their emotions towards how Musk runs the social media large: 37 p.c stated they authorised of the best way he’s working Twitter, 37 p.c disapproved and 25 p.c supplied no opinion. 

And ballot after ballot reveals that Musk isn’t overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, both. In keeping with that very same Quinnipiac survey, 36 p.c of Individuals stated they seen Musk positively versus 33 p.c who seen him negatively. (One other 26 p.c stated they hadn’t heard sufficient about him to make an opinion both manner.) A YouGov/The Economist ballot, fielded in November, discovered that 41 p.c of U.S. adults had a “very” or “considerably” favorable view of Musk in contrast with 37 p.c who seen him “considerably” or “very” unfavorably. These findings come regardless of proof displaying that, usually, Individuals maintain damaging opinions about social media firms. Quinnipiac, for instance, discovered that 70 p.c assume that social media giants like Twitter and Fb “do extra hurt than good,” whereas 18 p.c disagreed. One other spring 2022 survey from the Pew Analysis Heart, which polled residents in 19 superior economies about their views on social media, expertise and their affect on society, discovered that 79 p.c of U.S. respondents believed that entry to social media and the web has made folks extra divided of their political beliefs.

The truth that Musk isn’t overwhelmingly disliked may come as a shock to individuals who have been intently following Twitter’s destiny. In a matter of months, he gutted the corporate’s employees, drove away main advertisers and suspended (then unsuspended) the accounts of a number of distinguished journalists — amongst many different issues. And it’s price underscoring that not everyone seems to be over the moon with Twitter’s latest CEO. Per Quinnipiac, amongst U.S. adults, Republicans (63 p.c) and white males (51 p.c) have been the most probably to view Musk favorably. Democrats (9 p.c), Black respondents (17 p.c) and girls (25 p.c) have been the demographic teams least prone to harbor optimistic opinions towards Musk. 

And, to make sure, it does seem like Musk’s total favorability numbers have ticked down since buying Twitter. Again in April, YouGov discovered that nearer to half of U.S. adults (49 p.c) had a “very” or “considerably” favorable opinion of Musk in contrast with 31 p.c who seen him “considerably” or “very” unfavorably.

Sadly, most polls that ask respondents their opinions towards Musk don’t ask why folks really feel the best way they do. Is his wealth impacting folks’s views of him? Is his excessive identify ID giving him an added benefit? Did his suspension of journalists (which a majority of respondents in a December CivicScience ballot seen negatively) depress his favorability rankings? Topline survey findings don’t give us a whole lot of clues. What we do know, nevertheless, is that folks view Musk as an influential and profitable businessman — and possibly somebody who’s a bit quirky, too. And that may be why, regardless of his many flubs at Twitter, Individuals don’t have overwhelmingly damaging views of him.

For instance, YouGov’s April survey requested respondents how influential they felt Musk was within the tech world and the overwhelming majority of respondents (80 p.c) stated he was “very” or “considerably” influential. One other query on the identical polls requested the identical pattern to pick phrases that they felt described Musk. The winners have been: wealthy (60 p.c), an entrepreneur (49 p.c), an innovator (39 p.c) and eccentric (37 p.c). In the meantime, a December YouGov survey discovered that 58 p.c of U.S. adults imagine that Musk is a “profitable enterprise individual” versus 22 p.c who stated he wasn’t. 

So have Twitter customers really seen the final of Musk, then? It doesn’t appear to be he’s planning to bow out solely — and even partially. After asserting that he would resign as CEO as soon as he may discover a sufficiently silly successor, he stated that his subsequent steps can be to “simply run the software program & servers groups.” So the principle change to Twitter — a minimum of within the short-term — may be the best way Musk conducts his polls (he appeared to agree with a person’s remark which steered that, to any extent further, solely Twitter blue subscribers must be allowed to vote in “coverage associated” polls). Or possibly Musk really will step again and open the door for another person — good day, Snoop Dogg and Dionne Warwick — to take over at Twitter in 2023. Your guess is nearly as good as mine.

Different polling bites

Would you take into account your self a poor present wrapper? If that’s the case, your humility may put you within the minority, in line with new December polling information from YouGov. Per their survey, 64 p.c of U.S. adults stated they thought of themselves to be both “very” or “considerably” good at present wrapping. Nineteen p.c of respondents stated they have been considerably dangerous at gift-wrapping, whereas one other 11 p.c stated they have been very dangerous at it. You’re additionally within the minority, per YouGov, for those who’ve by no means regifted a gift to another person. Solely about one-third of grownup respondents (31 p.c) claimed that they’ve by no means achieved so, however most admitted to doing it: 29 p.c stated they’ve regifted a few times, 18 p.c stated they’ve regifted “a number of instances” and 13 p.c of respondents have regifted “many instances.”The top of the calendar 12 months has additionally led sure nationwide pollsters — Marist, particularly — to search out out which phrase or phrase U.S. adults discover most irritating. This 12 months’s winner/loser? “Woke.” In keeping with their survey, about one-third of Individuals (35 p.c) agree that “woke” is essentially the most annoying phrase utilized in dialog. Coming in second was the phrase “no matter” (22 p.c), adopted by “it’s what it’s” (15 p.c). However whereas attacking “woke” and “wokeism” was initially the crusade-du-jour by the GOP, it seems that a lot of survey respondents — no matter occasion ID — discovered the time period annoying. In actual fact, 31 p.c of Democrats, 39 p.c of Republicans and 38 p.c of unbiased voters listed “woke” as essentially the most bothersome phrase utilized in dialog. For context, 2021’s winners, in line with Marist, have been “Trump” and “coronavirus.”With the 2022 midterm elections behind us, all eyes are actually on the 2024 presidential race. And new polling information from Morning Seek the advice of seemingly means that voters may be taking a look at one other head-to-head matchup between Trump and President Biden (assuming the latter runs for reelection, which seems more and more possible). On the Republican aspect, Morning Seek the advice of’s monitoring amongst potential GOP major voters provides Trump a large lead (48 p.c) over potential opponents like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, (33 p.c) former Vice President Mike Pence (8 p.c), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (3 p.c) and others. Pitted instantly towards DeSantis, nevertheless, Trump has a tougher time breaking via. When potential GOP major voters have been requested who they’d vote for in a major election or caucus if it have been held of their state right now, 45 p.c of respondents stated DeSantis whereas 44 p.c stated Trump. Eleven p.c stated they didn’t know or had no opinion. In keeping with newly launched survey information from Gallup, Individuals’ evaluation of their very own psychological well being is at an all-time low. At present, nearly 3-in-10 U.S. adults (31 p.c) described their psychological or emotional well-being as “wonderful” — the bottom ranking Gallup has recorded because it started asking respondents this query in 2001. The writer notes, nevertheless, that a part of the downward pattern may be attributed to the COVID-19: Earlier than then, Individuals’ “wonderful” rankings ranged within the 40s. These numbers didn’t start to tick down till late 2020; that 12 months, the proportion of adults who felt that their psychological well being was in “wonderful” situation dropped to the 30s for the primary time at 34 p.c. The demographic teams least prone to say that their psychological well being and emotional well-being have been “wonderful” have been folks between the ages of 18 and 34 (20 p.c), individuals who made lower than $40,000 yearly (21 p.c) and girls (28 p.c). In a calendar 12 months that featured a significant election and the rippling results of a worldwide pandemic, which headlines caught out most to Individuals? In keeping with Morning Seek the advice of, this 12 months’s most salient information occasions, in line with registered voters, have been the Uvalde capturing (73 p.c), the autumn of Roe v. Wade (71 p.c), Queen Elizabeth II’s dying (71 p.c) and Hurricane Ian (70 p.c). However there was a partisan hole in information salience, too. Whereas Democrats (78 p.c) and unbiased voters (72 p.c) each listed the Uvalde capturing — which left 21 folks useless — as the highest information occasion that they noticed, heard or learn “quite a bit” about, Republicans have been extra prone to put Hurricane Ian (70 p.c) within the No. 1 slot. Amongst registered GOP voters, the Texas capturing ranked fourth (69 p.c) after the hurricane, the autumn of Roe (70 p.c) and the queen’s dying (70 p.c). 

Biden approval 

In keeping with FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43 p.c of Individuals approve of the job Biden is doing as president, whereas 51.6 p.c disapprove (a internet approval ranking of -8.6 factors). Presently final week, 43.0 p.c authorised and 51.3 p.c disapproved (a internet approval ranking of -8.3 factors). One month in the past, Biden had an approval ranking of 41.5 p.c and a disapproval ranking of 53.5 p.c, for a internet approval ranking of -12.0 factors.