FirstFT: Vitality crunch set to set off eurozone contraction

The eurozone economic system is ready to shrink subsequent yr as excessive inflation and potential power shortages drag down output and set off a reversal within the fortunes of the labour market, in keeping with a Monetary Instances ballot of economists.

Nearly 90 per cent of the 37 economists surveyed by the FT mentioned they thought the only foreign money zone was already in recession and the bulk forecast gross home product would contract over the entire of subsequent yr.

“Gasoline markets in Europe stay a key danger,” mentioned Chiara Zangarelli, an economist at Morgan Stanley. “Extra provide disruptions, or a very chilly winter, may result in renewed tensions and costs rising once more, forcing one other spherical of adaptation and demand destruction.”

Most economists mentioned they thought Europe was previous the worst of its power disaster, sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A light autumn allowed pure gasoline storage services to stay close to full capability.

Nonetheless, many concern the prospect of power rationing may return subsequent yr, notably if this winter is unusually chilly, depleting provides, or if gasoline flows from Russia are lowered additional throughout 2023.

“The tail danger of gasoline rationing has probably been prevented for this winter, however the query of power provide for the subsequent winter remains to be open,” mentioned Sylvain Broyer, chief economist for Europe Center East and Africa at S&P World Rankings.

Three extra tales within the information

1. UK banks to ease strain on mortgage holders A few of the UK’s largest banks, together with HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest, have agreed so-called forbearance measures with the federal government to assist struggling debtors as they brace for a surge in late mortgage funds.

2. Border Drive employees to stage second spherical of strikes Border Drive employees will launch a second spherical of strikes at UK airports at this time. The PCS union, which represents the frontier company’s employees, has strongly criticised the federal government’s 2 per cent pay rise for civil servants this yr and is demanding 10 per cent. The second spherical of strikes will run for 4 days.

3. JPMorgan bankers attempt to lure away Morgan Stanley’s tax fund shoppers JPMorgan Chase’s military of personal bankers is reportedly attempting to persuade its wealthy shoppers to maneuver billions of {dollars} from Morgan Stanley’s tax technique funds on to the financial institution’s personal platform.

What else we’re studying and listening to

Scale of European parliament investigation ‘distinctive’ In an interview with the FT, Belgium’s justice minister Vincent Van Quickenborne mentioned the magnitude of the probe into allegations of bribery involving members of the European parliament is of a scale often seen in main investigations into organised crime.

🎧 New yr, new funds: resolutions for 2023 The brand new yr is an ideal time to rethink and reorganise your monetary affairs however the place do you have to begin? On this episode of the Cash Clinic podcast, host Claer Barrett and her company share recommendation on methods to maintain to your new yr’s monetary objectives.

Providers corporations break up on homeworking after Covid FT analysis reveals how monetary companies corporations with UK operations diverge of their attitudes to homeworking. Whereas some — together with PwC, BlackRock and Aviva — are asking employees to come back in two or three days every week, others — equivalent to Deloitte, EY and Axa — are open to extra versatile approaches.

Hottest FT opinion story: ‘It’s time to confess that hybrid isn’t working’

Because the yr reaches its shut, we’re sharing a few of our most-read tales throughout completely different sections of the FT in 2022. At this time we spotlight our most learn opinion story.

Early within the yr, personal sector polls confirmed {that a} majority of staff needed to maintain working from house, at the very least a part of the time. However Camilla Cavendish requested, what if it’s not really that good for us, or these we work for?

Take a break from the information

Who’re the FT’s crossword compilers? Our band of setters are a breed few know a lot about. Beneath, compiler James Brydon shares a bit of bit about himself.

Stroll us by way of your compiling technique: I all the time begin with looking for good clues for lengthy solutions, ideally avoiding anagrams as they’re the best form of clues to assemble. At first, I search for good concepts: misdirection, putting photographs, humorous concepts, and so forth. Then, as a believer that crosswords are usually not merely a riddle however have technical and aesthetic qualities as properly, I’ll spend time sprucing the clues, aiming for accuracy, magnificence and succinctness.

Any recommendation for solvers? A crossword is sort of a backyard path sentence, so the trick for fixing is to isolate particular person phrases within the clue and work out how their meanings is likely to be completely different from how they seem within the floor studying.

The clue you wished you had written: The place to start out? I like this one from Arachne in The Guardian: “Two idiots stripped Mini’s bumpers off” (9). Learn on to seek out out the reply. Check out the FT’s newest crossword puzzles right here.